Sunday morning was a bit of a shock to the system. Was it really that cold, or more of a reminder of the winter to come? I do know we had to wear wetsuit boots for the first time. It pains us to wear wetsuit boots in October. These neoprene accessories aren’t as annoying as wetsuit gloves, but we’re going to be wearing boots until June, so putting them on mid-October is nobody’s idea of a good time.
Now, the water temp didn’t call for boots. But Sunday morning’s air temp was by far the coldest of the season so far, a chilly 45 degrees on the Island at dawn with a stiff north wind. (My friend drove in through the Pine Barrens to get a few waves, and one spot read 31 degrees on his dashboard. Yikes.) Despite the fact that the ocean temp took a significant dive last weekend, you still didn’t really need boots in the water. You just needed them to walk to the water, and then walking the beach back north after each drift. The ocean was probably 15 degrees warmer than the air.
I know I was grateful that the gas fireplace kicked on Saturday night. It’s always better to start the day warm and lose before a chilly day of surf. Wearing boots is one thing, but turning on the fireplace and heaters was a dose of reality because heating our houses is going to get expensive. And this is just a few weeks after we paid blood money for our August electric bills (unless you’re one of us cheapskates who don’t have central air and keep cool all summer with window units and before-bed dips in the ocean).
Just how expensive is this winter going to get? I know some readers called it propaganda when back in July I wrote that “gas prices were dancing over $4 a gallon,” thanks to the ever-so-well-planned-out war with Iran. In defense of the “very stable genius,” they pointed out that the national average was a few cents less than New Jersey’s. Kind of like saying, “Gas isn’t up 35% this year, it’s only up 34%.” Really owning the libs there. Well, the national average is now $4.29 per gallon, and New Jersey’s is $4.24. And we keep doing everything we can to avoid renewable energy. Might we be riding our bikes more in that winter wind?
But wait, there’s more. Our unwavering leader just lifted some silly sanctions and scored us a few cheap gallons of diesel from Russia … which happens to be helping Iran in their war against the U.S. What could go wrong?
Man, now I wish wearing wetsuit boots was our biggest problem.
THE SURF, THE STORM AND THE STORM SURF: It’s hard to talk about the surf – last week or this coming week – without talking about this latest blow, literally and figuratively. It’s a literal blow in that we have strong winds out of the northeast yet again. And a figurative blow, much like taking a haymaker in our face. And if we’re being honest, it just blows… Is this what we should expect from El Niño?
Chase Darren, backside attack on Monday night. (Photo by Tom Beaty)
To set the scene, it’s important to remember that last Wednesday, Oct. 14, flirted with 80 degrees. It was almost like a make-up day of the lost weeks of September.
A south wind Tuesday into Wednesday had built us a minor south swell. The wind went west-southwest by that afternoon, which is “clean enough.” The ocean was warm. If you knew where to go, you could find a sandbar off the beach (still deep on the inside from the storm) and paddle or swim out to it. The bar was completely exposed at low tide. But for the incoming tide all evening, there was a 1- to 2-foot south swell breaking just outside the sandbar. It was ideal conditions for a little longboard session.
Just outside the break, the birds were feeding on baitfish. Back on the beach, the goldenrod was in full bloom, covered entirely with flitting monarch butterflies. The surf was nothing special.
That’s the kind of day we should be having dozens of in September and October – warm water, calm winds, a little wave and a rideable sandbar. But Autumn 2026 has had very few of these. We all expect some stormy days, rain and wind. But it’s difficult to get that kind of surf session or even a beach walk when the wind goes hard northeast for eight days in a row.
Since the low has stayed to our southeast, some folks don’t even know the current nor’easter is there. But the watermen and -women are well aware. By pretty much any account, this fall has been a little rough, particularly for the outdoor folk. And that involves everything from the most extreme – “is the bay going to take my house this weekend?” to the more the common – “what are the best times to go fishing this week?” – or surfing, sailing or paddling (or, as was the case recently of some anonymous but awesome, maniacal individual, paragliding along our shores).
And because our community is so fixated on these activities for both fun and income, we are more at the mercy of the atmosphere. Now, what’s good for some may not be for others. But I can say across the board – this fall has been rough on all of us.
Former World Tour surfer turned big-wave paddle pioneer Shane Dorian making speed on LBI last Monday. (Photo by Tom Beaty)
And a rough fall stings particularly badly because we know it to be the golden season, the slowed-down months when we can pursue whatever it is we love with moderate temps and fewer crowds. So, taking it on the chin so many times this fall doesn’t help anyone.
By last Thursday, the winds were onshore. Friday blew hard south, maybe helping to repair some sandbars? (Not for long.) Saturday was tiny until late-day. The wind was north Sunday morning (the cold morning), and there was a 2- to 3-foot swell. The morning high tide was rideable, short-period swell, mostly lefts. There were a few spots where it was decent, but busy. A few other sandbars were empty but plenty rideable. But by late morning, the wind came northeast. It was fairly light in the afternoon, but not terribly appetizing. The wind was moderate north Monday, as the swell was building. Most of the Island was big and messy, but the South End had some lined-up lefts in the evening. Even former World Tour surfer Shane Dorian, in town for an event at Farias on Tuesday, snagged a few backside waves.
Here we are exactly one month since the September nor’easter, in the throes of yet another retrograding coastal storm. Fortunately, this one hasn’t been as bad, and we did manage a few waves, but the beaches will take another beating this week. As every surfer on the Island has noted these past few weeks, the sandbars have been slow to recover from the last storm. I would say this nor’easter is battering them even further – but to be honest, they can’t get much worse. That giant trough on the inside may only get wider and deeper.
Quite frankly, earlier forecasts showed a much more dire storm for the East Coast. And in that respect, we’re sort of lucky. I mean, if we were actually lucky, we wouldn’t have these massive multi-day blows once a month. But we are lucky in that at one point the models showed the low sticking just south of us all week and absolutely eating the East Coast. Cape Hatteras National Seashore might have taken a much worse beating than the beating it took. Successive model runs this past weekend showed a less dire situation. Now the storm looks to track east, away from the coast, which is good. Today (Wednesday) is likely the peak of the wind and surge. We still missed out on a week of our beach and boat activities, but at least we’re not underwater.
WHAT TO EXPECT AS THE STORM MOVES AWAY: The surf forecast is going to be tricky here late week. The main reason is the track of the low (as of early week, anyway) doesn’t show a definitive move to our north, while the fetch is still aimed at us. Should the low make more of a northerly move toward Nova Scotia, Thursday might be absolutely firing. The whole Island could light up with good angle swell and offshore winds.
But if it moves far east before that northerly nudge, we’re not necessarily getting the winds that are directly wrapping around the low-pressure system. The low moves out to sea and we get whatever weather is behind it, which could be north. Forecasts are calling for north-northwest and then north winds again Friday and Saturday. We’ll have waves and nice weather all weekend, but possibly only one or two spots might be any good. Could be a decent window to get on the boat then as the winds finally abate. Again, the wind direction can change and it may come down to just a few miles, so really hard to say. But be ready to surf, and keep an eye on the flags.
Brian Farias introduces the programming for Patagonia’s Out the Back event at Farias to a packed house last Friday night. (Photo courtesy Patagonia)
It’s kind of common knowledge that south winds make our water cooler and northeast winds make it warmer. That isn’t the case for extended nor’easters. Our water has already dropped a bit, so plan on a little more rubber than you were wearing last week when you do surf. The wind will likely go offshore next week as the swell gets smaller. But it could be more long paddles to short sandbars.
OUT THE BACK: Last Friday and Saturday, Farias hosted Patagonia’s Out The Back event at the Ship Bottom store. Friday night was a fantastic turnout with food, beer, tunes and ambassadors Greg Long and Annie Reickert. They gave Alliance for a Living Ocean a platform, which is always good. Then they showed the new documentary that Patagonia put out with Stab Magazine, “The Untold Story of the Inflatable Vests,” which documents not only the efforts to make an inflatable life vest for big waves, but also the ethical issues that it brings up.
Various vests have certainly saved lives. But at the same time, they have given some a sense of false confidence. Are there surfers out in big waves who probably shouldn’t be out there because they feel invincible in new technology? It’s a really fascinating look at both sides and was very well received, followed by a lively Q&A with Long and Reickert. There were some interesting workshops on Saturday as well. This was a really cool event that dug deep into surf culture and was relevant to a lot of locals.
ON YOUR PLATE: Still a lot happening here in late October and plenty to do starting this Saturday. The weekend looks absolutely gorgeous, even if the wind is still friggin’ northeast!
As mentioned above, all things surf-related will depend on where the low pressure system goes, and that includes the 20th annual Jetty Clam Jam. Hard to say if it will be worth holding the event if the winds go onshore again Saturday. Sunday could be the cleaner day, but there may be a lack of swell. Still, it looks more favorable than the past weekends.
You might start Saturday with Alliance for a Living Ocean’s October Beach Sweeps to get beaches and wetlands clean. With the recent storms, there is a lot of debris about. Everyone meets at Wally’s at 9:15, picks up buckets and gloves and then disperses to areas around the Island that need cleaning up. You’ll definitely want to grab a bucket because using a plastic bag just puts more single-use plastic in the waste stream. This goes until 12:30. Volunteers are asked to register at givebutter.com/beach-sweeps-fall-2026. ALO also invites you to bring gently used beach toys for the Toy Box initiative, so parents don’t have to always bring 19 bags and pails next summer and old toys don’t go to the landfill.
(From left) Patagonia’s Greg Long, Andrew Reinhart and Annie Reickert. Photo courtesy Patagonia.
On Saturday, Wave Hog Surf Shop and Matador will host a Pop-Up Board Swap at Wave Hog Surf Shop in Ship Bottom. These two shops have some of the most extensive collections of off-beat and vintage boards on the East Coast, and then folks always come out with interesting sticks to sell or swap, from collectibles to backyard shapes. These are always fun. And maybe if the surf alone isn’t worth the trip to the Island for the day, you get a drift and talk story over surfboards for a few hours.
There is a lot of excitement for the Southern Regional Skateboard Club’s Shredfest on Sunday at Waretown Skate Park. Running from noon to 4 p.m., this is free, open to all and promises to be an event for all levels of skateboarders and interest. The list of sponsors already speaks volumes for how much enthusiasm there is for skating in the area. In addition to burgers, soup, beverages and snacks, there’s pizza from Fusaro’s (each piece is a $1 donation) as well as event tees for sale.
The Southern Skate Club and Shack Boardshop will hold a free skate clinic for anyone interested in learning the basics. This is the core of the event – passing on the skills and culture to the next generation. Local musician Chris Fritz plays at 12:30 and the Gilbert Family Band plays at 2. In addition, the skaters will do a demo, showing off the local talent. Families who would like to take part in the clinic can register at docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSeOvIePlpglX0srI3eycIUmulmkMSVVeoWe49mOR4pQdtGbZQ/viewform.
Additionally, on Saturday the New Jersey Surfing Hall of Fame will hold an open meeting at 11 a.m. at Hollow Pines in West Creek to hear ideas and concerns from the public. This is the sign of a great, transparent organization – holding an open meeting to ask how they can be better. If you have any issues with the Hall of Fame, this is the time and place to present them. If not, you probably shouldn’t be jawing about it on social media.
Additionally, if you can’t make the Beach Sweeps on Saturday, Love Blue and Renew Blu will host a High Bar Harbor Cleanup on Sunday. This is from 2 to 4 p.m. at the High Bar Dike off Sunset Boulevard.
I am not sure if this is the last of our extended nor’easters, so get out and enjoy the rest of October.
